Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 35+ matches
Ural53%
Shinnik Yaroslavl22%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ural creates 69% more chances
Season form · 35 home / 122 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ural ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches
Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ural attack 1.71 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59
Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Ural at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Rotor Volgograd
Khimki
Chertanovo Moscow
Torpedo Moskva
FK Neftekhimik
Baltika
Ska-khabarovskShinnik Yaroslavl
TOM Tomsk
Chayka
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Armavir
Avangard Kursk
Enisey
Krasnodar 2
Luch-Energiya
Spartak Moscow 2
Tekstilshchik
Fakel Voronezh
Mordovia SaranskIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ural host Shinnik Yaroslavl on Saturday, 20 July 2024 at 09:30. The match is part of the First League 2018/2019 season.
First League: Ural 2–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl
Ural beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-1 in First League on July 20, 2024.
Goals: D. Samoylov (41' pen), D. Miškić (83' pen), S. Begić (89').
The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.