Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–2 Ural: Result & Stats | Cup

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ural

R. Augustyniak 80'

Y. Bavin 16'

6/24/2020

Cup · Quarter-finalsArena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl26%

×Draw30%

Ural44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchUral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.21

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.86

Ural

1.21

Ural creates 41% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 22 away

0.50

creates per match

1.41

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.50

Ural

1.41

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.00

Ural

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Ural →

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

56%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Ural

70%

Draw or Ural

74%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

Ural wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

58%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

21%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

Ural 1+ goals

70%

Ural 2+ goals

34%

Ural 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

37%

Ural (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Ural away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.50 + Ural defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.86

Ural attack 1.41 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

26%

level

30%

Ural scores more

44%

Ural at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

35'

37'

39'

46'

N. Matskharashvili← E. Nizamutdinov

68'

D. Efremov← A. Panyukov

77'

I. Oleynikov

77'

I. Oleynikov

80'

R. Augustyniak

82'

I. Maslennikov← V. Aleynikov

82'

T. Pukhov← D. Samoylov

85'

I. Kalinin← O. El Kabir

87'

A. Yusupov← M. Kucharczyk

88'

A. Gongapshev← S. Samodin

Shinnik

Ural

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Pobegalov

46'▲N. Matskharashvili←▼E. Nizamutdinov

82'▲I. Maslennikov←▼V. Aleynikov

82'▲T. Pukhov←▼D. Samoylov

88'▲A. Gongapshev←▼S. Samodin

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

99Matskharashvili72Maslennikov11Pukhov77Gongapshev45Betyuzhnov97Goshev50Vovk43Polyakov

Manager: D. Parfenov

68'▲D. Efremov←▼A. Panyukov

85'▲I. Kalinin←▼O. El Kabir

87'▲A. Yusupov←▼M. Kucharczyk

Ural substitutes

11Efremov95Kalinin79Yusupov93Gerasimov69Shabolin77Baklov60Poletaev3Haroyan21Nasyrov80Magomadov