Ural 0–0 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Ural

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

7/29/2023

Premier League · Round 2Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Ural45%

×Draw27%

Nizhny Novgorod28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UralExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Ural

1.40

Nizhny Novgorod

1.04

Ural creates 35% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 78 away

1.12

creates per match

0.78

1.31

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Ural

1.12

Nizhny Novgorod

0.78

allows per match

Ural

1.31

Nizhny Novgorod

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ural or draw

72%

Ural or Nizhny Novgorod

73%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

55%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+

22%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals

75%

Ural 2+ goals

41%

Ural 3+ goals

17%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

65%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

28%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)

62%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 93 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.12 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Ural defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ural scores more

45%

level

27%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

28%

Ural at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

78

N. Kalinskiy

Nizhny Novgorod · M

7.5

Match Events

58'

A. Kashtanov← Guilherme Schettine

58'

I. Ishkov← A. Yushin

67'

D. Stotskiy← I. Yuldoshev

67'

I. Zhigulev← E. Sevikyan

73'

I. Dmitriev← M. Beveev

73'

T. Suleymanov← A. Troshechkin

90'

Y. Zheleznov← A. Egorychev

90+6'

L. Masoero← Y. Mikhaylov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UralNizhny

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots8

0.57Expected Goals (xG)0.37

3Corners3

13Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots8

1On Target3

5Off Target4

1Blocked1

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

421Total Passes510

308Accurate Passes395

73%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Offsides1