Ural 0–1 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Ural

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

I. Yuldoshev 79'

8/20/2022

Premier League · Round 6Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Ural45%

×Draw27%

Nizhny Novgorod28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UralExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Ural

1.40

Nizhny Novgorod

1.04

Ural creates 35% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 78 away

1.12

creates per match

0.78

1.31

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Ural

1.12

Nizhny Novgorod

0.78

allows per match

Ural

1.31

Nizhny Novgorod

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ural or draw

72%

Ural or Nizhny Novgorod

73%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

55%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+

22%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals

75%

Ural 2+ goals

41%

Ural 3+ goals

17%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

65%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

28%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)

62%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 93 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.12 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Ural defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ural scores more

45%

level

27%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

28%

Ural at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

I. Yuldoshev

Nizhny Novgorod · D

7.7

Match Events

12'

27'

39'

42'

46'

I. Yuldoshev← D. Penchikov

58'

Milson← T. Suleymanov

59'

I. Konovalov← F. Sungatulin

59'

Y. Zheleznov← R. Gadzhimuradov

62'

Andrey Egorychev

62'

Andrey Egorychev

63'

N. Kakkoev← A. Sharipov

70'

I. Bykovskiy← L. Goglichidze

71'

Emmersón← V. Podberezkin

77'

Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet

79'

I. Yuldoshev↳ V. Krotov

80'

Y. Gazinskiy← Y. Zheleznov

89'

D. Rybchinskiy← V. Krotov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UralNizhny

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots15

2Corners8

17Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots15

3On Target4

5Off Target7

2Blocked4

7Inside Box10

3Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

402Total Passes432

308Accurate Passes332

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls9

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod

Nizhny Novgorod beat Ural 1-0 in Premier League on August 20, 2022.

Goals: I. Yuldoshev (79').

Nizhny Novgorod controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.

Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod