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Ural vs FC UFA — First League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC UFA
FC UFA
M. Voronov 83'
M. Sekulić 70'
I. Chernyak 90+1'
5/11/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural55%
×Draw26%
FC UFA19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.55
FC UFA
0.79

Ural creates 96% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 50 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
FC UFA
0.70

allows per match

Ural
0.89
FC UFA
1.40

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ural or draw
81%
Ural or FC UFA
74%
Draw or FC UFA
45%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
29%
FC UFA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
79%
Ural 2+ goals
46%
Ural 3+ goals
20%
FC UFA 1+ goals
55%
FC UFA 2+ goals
19%
FC UFA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
74%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.40 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + FC UFA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

FC UFA attack 0.70 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ural scores more
55%
level
26%
FC UFA scores more
19%

Ural at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Vladislav Adaev
57'
E. Markov← V. Bondarev
68'
E. Mosin← I. Ishkov
68'
M. Voronov← Y. Zheleznov
69'
N. Matskharashvili← V. Adaev
69'
K. Mullin← V. Lozhkin
70'
M. Sekulić
79'
I. Chernyak← A. Anisimov
82'
T. Ayupov← M. Sekulić
83'
M. Voronov
86'
R. Gystarov← S. Isaev
86'
D. Akhatov← M. Ageyan
90+5'
Aleksey Mamin
90+1'
I. Chernyak

Statistics

UralFC
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Ural vs FC UFA

Ural beat FC UFA 2-1 in First League on May 11, 2025.

Goals: M. Sekulić (70'), M. Voronov (83'), I. Chernyak (90+1').

The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.