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Ural vs FC UFA — Friendlies Clubs 2020

Ural
Ural
FT
1 – 4
FC UFA
FC UFA
7/5/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ural36%
×Draw26%
FC UFA38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.29
FC UFA
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ural
1.50
FC UFA
1.36

allows per match

Ural
1.30
FC UFA
1.09

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ural or draw
62%
Ural or FC UFA
74%
Draw or FC UFA
64%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
16%
FC UFA wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
72%
Ural 2+ goals
37%
Ural 3+ goals
14%
FC UFA 1+ goals
74%
FC UFA 2+ goals
38%
FC UFA 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
49%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

FC UFA away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.50 + FC UFA defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC UFA attack 1.36 + Ural defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ural scores more
36%
level
26%
FC UFA scores more
38%

FC UFA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ural 1 – 4 FC UFA

FC UFA beat Ural 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 5, 2022.

The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.