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Ural U20 vs Ufa U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Ural U20
Ural U20
FT
4 – 0
Ufa U20
Ufa U20
7/12/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 1Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Ural U2047%
×Draw22%
Ufa U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural U20
1.91
Ufa U20
1.51

Ural U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ural U20
1.57
Ufa U20
0.97

allows per match

Ural U20
2.05
Ufa U20
2.25

finishing

Ural U20+0.00on par
Ufa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural U20 ↓

Ufa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ural U20 or draw
69%
Ural U20 or Ufa U20
78%
Draw or Ufa U20
53%

Winning margin

Ural U20 wins by 2+
26%
Ufa U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ural U20 1+ goals
85%
Ural U20 2+ goals
57%
Ural U20 3+ goals
30%
Ufa U20 1+ goals
78%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
44%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ural U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.05 · 99 matches

Ufa U20 away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural U20 attack 1.57 + Ufa U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Ufa U20 attack 0.97 + Ural U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ural U20 scores more
47%
level
22%
Ufa U20 scores more
31%

Ural U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ural U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Ural U20 4–0 Ufa U20

Ural U20 beat Ufa U20 4-0 in Youth Championship on July 12, 2019.

The match was played at Sport Baza Bazhoviya in Sysert.