Ufa U20 2–0 Ural U20: Result & Stats

Ufa U20

FT

2 – 0

Ural U20

10/4/2020

Youth Championship · Round 5Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ufa U2038%

×Draw24%

Ural U2038%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ufa U20Expected goals in this matchUral U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.56

Ufa U20

1.57

Ural U20

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 99 away

1.08

creates per match

1.01

2.11

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Ufa U20

1.08

Ural U20

1.01

allows per match

Ufa U20

2.11

Ural U20

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ufa U20+0.00on par

Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ufa U20 ↓

Ural U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ufa U20 or draw

62%

Ufa U20 or Ural U20

76%

Draw or Ural U20

62%

Winning margin

Ufa U20 wins by 2+

19%

Ural U20 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ufa U20 1+ goals

79%

Ufa U20 2+ goals

46%

Ufa U20 3+ goals

21%

Ural U20 1+ goals

79%

Ural U20 2+ goals

46%

Ural U20 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ufa U20 (draw refunded)

50%

Ural U20 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ufa U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ufa U20 attack 1.08 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + Ufa U20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ufa U20 scores more

38%

level

24%

Ural U20 scores more

38%

Ufa U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ufa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff