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Ural U20 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Ural U20
Ural U20
FT
1 – 5
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
D. Novikov 75'
M. Turishchev 90'
T. Kasimov 63'
I. Gritsak 53'
M. Pershin 31'
S. Babkin 9' (pen)
12/15/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 14Futbol'nyj manezh Ural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ural U2023%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Moskva U2056%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural U20
1.22
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
2.02

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ural U20
1.57
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
2.00

allows per match

Ural U20
2.05
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
0.86

finishing

Ural U20+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural U20 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ural U20 or draw
44%
Ural U20 or Lokomotiv Moskva U20
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U20
77%

Winning margin

Ural U20 wins by 2+
9%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Ural U20 1+ goals
70%
Ural U20 2+ goals
34%
Ural U20 3+ goals
12%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals
87%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals
60%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Ural U20 (draw refunded)
29%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.05 · 99 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural U20 attack 1.57 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 2.00 + Ural U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ural U20 scores more
23%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more
56%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
S. BabkinPenalty
31'
M. Pershin
53'
I. Gritsak
63'
T. Kasimov
75'
D. Novikov
90'
M. Turishchev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Ural U20 1–5 Lokomotiv Moskva U20

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 beat Ural U20 5-1 in Youth Championship on December 15, 2020.

Goals: S. Babkin (9' pen), M. Pershin (31'), I. Gritsak (53'), T. Kasimov (63'), D. Novikov (75'), M. Turishchev (90').

The match was played at Futbol'nyj manezh Ural in Ekaterinburg.