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Lokomotiv Moskva U20 vs Ural U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
FT
4 – 0
Ural U20
Ural U20
T. Kasimov 89'
M. Turishchev 72'
S. Babkin 18'
I. Gritsak 15'
9/16/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 2Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U2063%
×Draw22%
Ural U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.84
Ural U20
0.77

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 139% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 99 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.63
Ural U20
1.01

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
0.53
Ural U20
2.06

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par
Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 ↓

Ural U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or draw
85%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or Ural U20
78%
Draw or Ural U20
37%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+
37%
Ural U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals
84%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals
55%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals
28%
Ural U20 1+ goals
54%
Ural U20 2+ goals
18%
Ural U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
81%
Ural U20 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 1.63 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more
63%
level
22%
Ural U20 scores more
15%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
I. Gritsak
18'
S. Babkin
54'
S. Krotov
72'
M. Turishchev
89'
T. Kasimov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Lokomotiv Moskva U20 4–0 Ural U20

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 beat Ural U20 4-0 in Youth Championship on September 16, 2020.

Goals: I. Gritsak (15'), S. Babkin (18'), M. Turishchev (72'), T. Kasimov (89').

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.