Ural U20 2–1 Baltika U19: Result & Stats

Ural U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Baltika U19

4/11/2025

Youth Championship · Round 5SKB-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Ural U2048%

×Draw22%

Baltika U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ural U20Expected goals in this matchBaltika U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.50

Ural U20

1.95

Baltika U19

1.50

Ural U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 39 away

1.57

creates per match

0.95

2.05

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Ural U20

1.57

Baltika U19

0.95

allows per match

Ural U20

2.05

Baltika U19

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural U20+0.00on par

Baltika U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural U20 ↓

Baltika U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ural U20 or draw

70%

Ural U20 or Baltika U19

78%

Draw or Baltika U19

52%

Winning margin

Ural U20 wins by 2+

27%

Baltika U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ural U20 1+ goals

86%

Ural U20 2+ goals

58%

Ural U20 3+ goals

31%

Baltika U19 1+ goals

78%

Baltika U19 2+ goals

44%

Baltika U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ural U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Baltika U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.05 · 99 matches

Baltika U19 away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural U20 attack 1.57 + Baltika U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.95

Baltika U19 attack 0.95 + Ural U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ural U20 scores more

48%

level

22%

Baltika U19 scores more

30%

Ural U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ural U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff