Baltika U19 3–1 Ural U20: Result & Stats

Baltika U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ural U20

11/3/2023

Youth Championship · Round 16Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Baltika U1947%

×Draw23%

Ural U2030%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baltika U19Expected goals in this matchUral U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.42

Baltika U19

1.83

Ural U20

1.42

Baltika U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 99 away

1.61

creates per match

1.01

1.82

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Baltika U19

1.61

Ural U20

1.01

allows per match

Baltika U19

1.82

Ural U20

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika U19+0.00on par

Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika U19 ↓

Ural U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Baltika U19 or draw

70%

Baltika U19 or Ural U20

77%

Draw or Ural U20

53%

Winning margin

Baltika U19 wins by 2+

26%

Ural U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Baltika U19 1+ goals

84%

Baltika U19 2+ goals

54%

Baltika U19 3+ goals

28%

Ural U20 1+ goals

76%

Ural U20 2+ goals

41%

Ural U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Baltika U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Ural U20 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika U19 attack 1.61 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + Baltika U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baltika U19 scores more

47%

level

23%

Ural U20 scores more

30%

Baltika U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baltika U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff