Ural U20 5–1 Akhmat Grozny U20: Result & Stats

Ural U20

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Akhmat Grozny U20

5/2/2025

Youth Championship · Round 8SKB-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Ural U2044%

×Draw22%

Akhmat Grozny U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ural U20Expected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.57

Ural U20

1.85

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.57

Ural U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 90 away

1.57

creates per match

1.09

2.05

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Ural U20

1.57

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.09

allows per match

Ural U20

2.05

Akhmat Grozny U20

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural U20+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural U20 ↓

Akhmat Grozny U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ural U20 or draw

67%

Ural U20 or Akhmat Grozny U20

78%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny U20

56%

Winning margin

Ural U20 wins by 2+

24%

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ural U20 1+ goals

84%

Ural U20 2+ goals

55%

Ural U20 3+ goals

28%

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals

79%

Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals

46%

Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ural U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.05 · 99 matches

Akhmat Grozny U20 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural U20 attack 1.57 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.85

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.09 + Ural U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ural U20 scores more

44%

level

22%

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more

33%

Ural U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ural U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff