Akhmat Grozny U20 1–3 Ural U20: Result & Stats

Akhmat Grozny U20

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ural U20

3/15/2024

Youth Championship · Round 2Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Akhmat Grozny U2051%

×Draw23%

Ural U2026%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akhmat Grozny U20Expected goals in this matchUral U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.22

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.79

Ural U20

1.22

Akhmat Grozny U20 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 99 away

1.53

creates per match

1.01

1.43

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.53

Ural U20

1.01

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.43

Ural U20

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par

Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny U20 ↓

Ural U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny U20 or draw

74%

Akhmat Grozny U20 or Ural U20

77%

Draw or Ural U20

49%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+

28%

Ural U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals

83%

Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals

53%

Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals

26%

Ural U20 1+ goals

70%

Ural U20 2+ goals

34%

Ural U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Ural U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.53 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more

51%

level

23%

Ural U20 scores more

26%

Akhmat Grozny U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff