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Ural II vs Spartak Tuymazy — Second League - Group 4 2020

Ural II
Ural II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Spartak Tuymazy
Spartak Tuymazy
10/5/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ural II51%
×Draw22%
Spartak Tuymazy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural II
2.04
Spartak Tuymazy
1.44

Ural II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ural II
1.36
Spartak Tuymazy
1.36

allows per match

Ural II
1.51
Spartak Tuymazy
2.71

finishing

Ural II+0.00on par
Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural II ↓

Spartak Tuymazy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ural II or draw
73%
Ural II or Spartak Tuymazy
78%
Draw or Spartak Tuymazy
49%

Winning margin

Ural II wins by 2+
30%
Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ural II 1+ goals
87%
Ural II 2+ goals
60%
Ural II 3+ goals
33%
Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals
76%
Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals
42%
Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ural II (draw refunded)
65%
Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.51 · 84 matches

Spartak Tuymazy away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural II attack 1.36 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.36 + Ural II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ural II scores more
51%
level
22%
Spartak Tuymazy scores more
27%

Ural II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ural II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Ural II 1–1 Spartak Tuymazy

Ural II and Spartak Tuymazy drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 4 on October 5, 2021.

The match was played at Sport Baza Bazhoviya in Sysert.