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Spartak Tuymazy vs Ural II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Spartak Tuymazy
Spartak Tuymazy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ural II
Ural II
11/4/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion Spartak Tuymazy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spartak Tuymazy39%
×Draw23%
Ural II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Tuymazy
1.68
Ural II
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

Spartak Tuymazy
1.86
Ural II
1.25

allows per match

Spartak Tuymazy
2.07
Ural II
1.49

finishing

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par
Ural II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Tuymazy ↓

Ural II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Tuymazy or draw
62%
Spartak Tuymazy or Ural II
77%
Draw or Ural II
61%

Winning margin

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+
20%
Ural II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals
81%
Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals
24%
Ural II 1+ goals
81%
Ural II 2+ goals
49%
Ural II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)
51%
Ural II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Tuymazy at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Ural II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.86 + Ural II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ural II attack 1.25 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartak Tuymazy scores more
39%
level
23%
Ural II scores more
38%

Spartak Tuymazy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spartak Tuymazy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Tuymazy vs Ural II

Spartak Tuymazy beat Ural II 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on November 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak Tuymazy in Tuymazy.