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Ural II vs Rubin Kazan 2 — Second League - Group 4 2020

Ural II
Ural II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rubin Kazan 2
Rubin Kazan 2
4/7/2026Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Division B - Group 4 - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ural II38%
×Draw27%
Rubin Kazan 235%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural II
1.29
Rubin Kazan 2
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 42 away

creates per match

Ural II
1.36
Rubin Kazan 2
0.95

allows per match

Ural II
1.51
Rubin Kazan 2
1.21

finishing

Ural II+0.00on par
Rubin Kazan 2+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural II ↓

Rubin Kazan 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ural II or draw
65%
Ural II or Rubin Kazan 2
73%
Draw or Rubin Kazan 2
62%

Winning margin

Ural II wins by 2+
17%
Rubin Kazan 2 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ural II 1+ goals
72%
Ural II 2+ goals
37%
Ural II 3+ goals
14%
Rubin Kazan 2 1+ goals
71%
Rubin Kazan 2 2+ goals
35%
Rubin Kazan 2 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ural II (draw refunded)
52%
Rubin Kazan 2 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.51 · 84 matches

Rubin Kazan 2 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural II attack 1.36 + Rubin Kazan 2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Rubin Kazan 2 attack 0.95 + Ural II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ural II scores more
38%
level
27%
Rubin Kazan 2 scores more
35%

Ural II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ural II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ural II vs Rubin Kazan 2

Ural II and Rubin Kazan 2 drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 4 on April 7, 2026.