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Rubin Kazan 2 vs Ural II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Rubin Kazan 2
Rubin Kazan 2
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ural II
Ural II
9/14/2025Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Academy Field Rubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Rubin Kazan 250%
×Draw25%
Ural II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Kazan 2
1.59
Ural II
1.03

Rubin Kazan 2 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 83 away

creates per match

Rubin Kazan 2
1.69
Ural II
1.25

allows per match

Rubin Kazan 2
0.81
Ural II
1.49

finishing

Rubin Kazan 2+0.00on par
Ural II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan 2 ↓

Ural II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan 2 or draw
75%
Rubin Kazan 2 or Ural II
75%
Draw or Ural II
50%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan 2 wins by 2+
26%
Ural II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan 2 1+ goals
80%
Rubin Kazan 2 2+ goals
47%
Rubin Kazan 2 3+ goals
21%
Ural II 1+ goals
64%
Ural II 2+ goals
28%
Ural II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan 2 (draw refunded)
67%
Ural II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan 2 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

Ural II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan 2 attack 1.69 + Ural II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ural II attack 1.25 + Rubin Kazan 2 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rubin Kazan 2 scores more
50%
level
25%
Ural II scores more
25%

Rubin Kazan 2 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rubin Kazan 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Rubin Kazan 2 3–0 Ural II

Rubin Kazan 2 beat Ural II 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Academy Field Rubin in Kazan.