Ural II 4–0 Nizhny Novgorod II: Result & Stats

Ural II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod II

9/14/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ural II61%

×Draw21%

Nizhny Novgorod II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ural IIExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.98

Ural II

1.99

Nizhny Novgorod II

0.98

Ural II creates 103% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 13 away

1.36

creates per match

0.46

1.51

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Ural II

1.36

Nizhny Novgorod II

0.46

allows per match

Ural II

1.51

Nizhny Novgorod II

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural II+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural II ↓

Nizhny Novgorod II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ural II or draw

82%

Ural II or Nizhny Novgorod II

79%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod II

39%

Winning margin

Ural II wins by 2+

37%

Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ural II 1+ goals

86%

Ural II 2+ goals

59%

Ural II 3+ goals

32%

Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals

62%

Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals

26%

Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ural II (draw refunded)

77%

Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.51 · 84 matches

Nizhny Novgorod II away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural II attack 1.36 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.99

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 0.46 + Ural II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ural II scores more

61%

level

21%

Nizhny Novgorod II scores more

18%

Ural II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ural II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff