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Nizhny Novgorod II vs Ural II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Nizhny Novgorod II
Nizhny Novgorod II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ural II
Ural II
6/9/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod II36%
×Draw26%
Ural II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.29
Ural II
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.08
Ural II
1.25

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.46
Ural II
1.49

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par
Ural II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod II ↓

Ural II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod II or draw
62%
Nizhny Novgorod II or Ural II
74%
Draw or Ural II
64%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+
16%
Ural II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals
72%
Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals
37%
Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals
14%
Ural II 1+ goals
74%
Ural II 2+ goals
39%
Ural II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)
48%
Ural II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Ural II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 1.08 + Ural II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ural II attack 1.25 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nizhny Novgorod II scores more
36%
level
26%
Ural II scores more
38%

Ural II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ural II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Nizhny Novgorod II 1–1 Ural II

Nizhny Novgorod II and Ural II drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 4 on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.