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Ural II vs Khimik Vurnary — Second League - Group 4 2020

Ural II
Ural II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Khimik Vurnary
Khimik Vurnary
4/29/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ural II37%
×Draw26%
Khimik Vurnary37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural II
1.36
Khimik Vurnary
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ural II
1.36
Khimik Vurnary
1.23

allows per match

Ural II
1.51
Khimik Vurnary
1.36

finishing

Ural II+0.00on par
Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural II ↓

Khimik Vurnary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ural II or draw
63%
Ural II or Khimik Vurnary
74%
Draw or Khimik Vurnary
63%

Winning margin

Ural II wins by 2+
17%
Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ural II 1+ goals
74%
Ural II 2+ goals
39%
Ural II 3+ goals
16%
Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals
75%
Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals
40%
Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ural II (draw refunded)
50%
Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.51 · 84 matches

Khimik Vurnary away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural II attack 1.36 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.23 + Ural II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ural II scores more
37%
level
26%
Khimik Vurnary scores more
37%

Ural II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ural II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Ural II 1–2 Khimik Vurnary

Khimik Vurnary beat Ural II 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sport Baza Bazhoviya in Sysert.