Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khimik Vurnary vs Ural II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Khimik Vurnary
Khimik Vurnary
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ural II
Ural II
7/24/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Khimik Vurnary40%
×Draw28%
Ural II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Vurnary
1.27
Ural II
1.13

Khimik Vurnary creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 83 away

creates per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.05
Ural II
1.25

allows per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.00
Ural II
1.49

finishing

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par
Ural II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Vurnary ↓

Ural II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khimik Vurnary or draw
67%
Khimik Vurnary or Ural II
72%
Draw or Ural II
60%

Winning margin

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+
18%
Ural II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals
72%
Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals
36%
Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals
14%
Ural II 1+ goals
68%
Ural II 2+ goals
31%
Ural II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)
55%
Ural II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Vurnary at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Ural II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.05 + Ural II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ural II attack 1.25 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khimik Vurnary scores more
40%
level
28%
Ural II scores more
33%

Khimik Vurnary at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khimik Vurnary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Khimik Vurnary 3–2 Ural II

Khimik Vurnary beat Ural II 3-2 in Second League - Group 4 on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Vurnary.