Urædd 1–2 Sarpsborg 08 II: Result & Stats

Urædd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sarpsborg 08 II

4/19/2022

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 2Urædd KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Urædd40%

×Draw22%

Sarpsborg 08 II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UræddExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.70

Urædd

1.77

Sarpsborg 08 II

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.08

creates per match

0.77

2.62

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Urædd

1.08

Sarpsborg 08 II

0.77

allows per match

Urædd

2.62

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urædd+0.00on par

Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urædd ↓

Sarpsborg 08 II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Urædd or draw

63%

Urædd or Sarpsborg 08 II

78%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 II

60%

Winning margin

Urædd wins by 2+

21%

Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Urædd 1+ goals

83%

Urædd 2+ goals

53%

Urædd 3+ goals

26%

Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals

82%

Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals

51%

Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Urædd (draw refunded)

52%

Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urædd at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Sarpsborg 08 II away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urædd attack 1.08 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 0.77 + Urædd defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Urædd scores more

40%

level

22%

Sarpsborg 08 II scores more

37%

Urædd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Urædd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff