Sarpsborg 08 II 3–2 Urædd: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Urædd

10/16/2022

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 25Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 II64%

×Draw17%

Urædd19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 IIExpected goals in this matchUrædd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.84

1.50

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.84

Urædd

1.50

Sarpsborg 08 II creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.77

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.77

Urædd

1.00

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.00

Urædd

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Urædd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 II ↓

Urædd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 II or draw

81%

Sarpsborg 08 II or Urædd

83%

Draw or Urædd

36%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+

44%

Urædd wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals

94%

Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals

77%

Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals

53%

Urædd 1+ goals

78%

Urædd 2+ goals

44%

Urædd 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)

78%

Urædd (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 II at home — creates 2.77, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Urædd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 2.77 + Urædd defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.84

Urædd attack 1.00 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sarpsborg 08 II scores more

64%

level

17%

Urædd scores more

19%

Sarpsborg 08 II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff