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Urædd vs Randesund — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Urædd
Urædd
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Randesund
Randesund
5/14/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 6Urædd KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Urædd42%
×Draw22%
Randesund36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urædd
1.81
Randesund
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Urædd
1.08
Randesund
0.69

allows per match

Urædd
2.62
Randesund
2.54

finishing

Urædd+0.00on par
Randesund+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urædd ↓

Randesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Urædd or draw
64%
Urædd or Randesund
78%
Draw or Randesund
58%

Winning margin

Urædd wins by 2+
22%
Randesund wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Urædd 1+ goals
84%
Urædd 2+ goals
54%
Urædd 3+ goals
27%
Randesund 1+ goals
81%
Randesund 2+ goals
49%
Randesund 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Urædd (draw refunded)
54%
Randesund (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urædd at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Randesund away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urædd attack 1.08 + Randesund defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.81

Randesund attack 0.69 + Urædd defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Urædd scores more
42%
level
22%
Randesund scores more
36%

Urædd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Urædd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urædd vs Randesund

Urædd and Randesund drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Urædd KG in Porsgrunn.