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Randesund vs Urædd — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Randesund
Randesund
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Urædd
Urædd
9/17/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 21Sukkevann kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Randesund50%
×Draw20%
Urædd29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Randesund
2.25
Urædd
1.69

Randesund creates 33% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Randesund
1.58
Urædd
1.00

allows per match

Randesund
2.38
Urædd
2.92

finishing

Randesund+0.00on par
Urædd+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randesund ↓

Urædd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Randesund or draw
71%
Randesund or Urædd
80%
Draw or Urædd
50%

Winning margin

Randesund wins by 2+
30%
Urædd wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Randesund 1+ goals
89%
Randesund 2+ goals
65%
Randesund 3+ goals
39%
Urædd 1+ goals
82%
Urædd 2+ goals
50%
Urædd 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Randesund (draw refunded)
63%
Urædd (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randesund at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.38 · 26 matches

Urædd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randesund attack 1.58 + Urædd defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.25

Urædd attack 1.00 + Randesund defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Randesund scores more
50%
level
20%
Urædd scores more
29%

Randesund at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Randesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Randesund vs Urædd

Randesund beat Urædd 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Sukkevann kunstgress in Kristiansand.