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UPI-ONM vs Soleil — Championnat National 2019

UPI-ONM
UPI-ONM
FT
3 – 1
Soleil
Soleil
5/2/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 27Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi (Abomey Calavi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

UPI-ONM43%
×Draw27%
Soleil30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPI-ONM
1.33
Soleil
1.07

UPI-ONM creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 62 away

creates per match

UPI-ONM
0.94
Soleil
0.82

allows per match

UPI-ONM
1.32
Soleil
1.73

finishing

UPI-ONM+0.00on par
Soleil+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPI-ONM ↓

Soleil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UPI-ONM or draw
70%
UPI-ONM or Soleil
73%
Draw or Soleil
57%

Winning margin

UPI-ONM wins by 2+
20%
Soleil wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UPI-ONM 1+ goals
74%
UPI-ONM 2+ goals
38%
UPI-ONM 3+ goals
15%
Soleil 1+ goals
66%
Soleil 2+ goals
29%
Soleil 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UPI-ONM (draw refunded)
59%
Soleil (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPI-ONM at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

Soleil away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPI-ONM attack 0.94 + Soleil defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Soleil attack 0.82 + UPI-ONM defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UPI-ONM scores more
43%
level
27%
Soleil scores more
30%

UPI-ONM at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UPI-ONM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UPI-ONM vs Soleil

UPI-ONM beat Soleil 3-1 in Championnat National on May 2, 2019.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi (Abomey Calavi).