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Soleil vs UPI-ONM — Championnat National 2019

Soleil
Soleil
FT
1 – 2
UPI-ONM
UPI-ONM
12/23/2018Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 8Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa (Cotonou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Soleil43%
×Draw27%
UPI-ONM30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soleil
1.35
UPI-ONM
1.07

Soleil creates 26% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 90 away

creates per match

Soleil
1.11
UPI-ONM
0.73

allows per match

Soleil
1.41
UPI-ONM
1.59

finishing

Soleil+0.00on par
UPI-ONM+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soleil ↓

UPI-ONM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Soleil or draw
70%
Soleil or UPI-ONM
73%
Draw or UPI-ONM
57%

Winning margin

Soleil wins by 2+
20%
UPI-ONM wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Soleil 1+ goals
74%
Soleil 2+ goals
39%
Soleil 3+ goals
15%
UPI-ONM 1+ goals
66%
UPI-ONM 2+ goals
29%
UPI-ONM 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Soleil (draw refunded)
59%
UPI-ONM (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soleil at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

UPI-ONM away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.59 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soleil attack 1.11 + UPI-ONM defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

UPI-ONM attack 0.73 + Soleil defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Soleil scores more
43%
level
27%
UPI-ONM scores more
30%

Soleil at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Soleil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Soleil 1 – 2 UPI-ONM

UPI-ONM beat Soleil 2-1 in Championnat National on December 23, 2018.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa (Cotonou).