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UPDF vs Blacks Power — Premier League 2019

UPDF
UPDF
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Blacks Power
Blacks Power
4/28/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

UPDF52%
×Draw27%
Blacks Power21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPDF
1.40
Blacks Power
0.78

UPDF creates 79% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 14 away

creates per match

UPDF
1.00
Blacks Power
0.57

allows per match

UPDF
0.99
Blacks Power
1.79

finishing

UPDF+0.00on par
Blacks Power+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPDF ↓

Blacks Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UPDF or draw
79%
UPDF or Blacks Power
73%
Draw or Blacks Power
48%

Winning margin

UPDF wins by 2+
25%
Blacks Power wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UPDF 1+ goals
75%
UPDF 2+ goals
41%
UPDF 3+ goals
17%
Blacks Power 1+ goals
54%
Blacks Power 2+ goals
18%
Blacks Power 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

UPDF (draw refunded)
71%
Blacks Power (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPDF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Blacks Power away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPDF attack 1.00 + Blacks Power defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Blacks Power attack 0.57 + UPDF defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

UPDF scores more
52%
level
27%
Blacks Power scores more
21%

UPDF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UPDF vs Blacks Power

UPDF beat Blacks Power 3-0 in Premier League on April 28, 2023.

The match was played at Bombo Stadium in Bombo.