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Blacks Power vs UPDF — Premier League 2019

Blacks Power
Blacks Power
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UPDF
UPDF
11/29/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Akii Bua Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Blacks Power43%
×Draw28%
UPDF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacks Power
1.32
UPDF
1.03

Blacks Power creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 87 away

creates per match

Blacks Power
0.93
UPDF
0.92

allows per match

Blacks Power
1.14
UPDF
1.71

finishing

Blacks Power+0.00on par
UPDF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacks Power ↓

UPDF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Blacks Power or draw
71%
Blacks Power or UPDF
72%
Draw or UPDF
57%

Winning margin

Blacks Power wins by 2+
20%
UPDF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Blacks Power 1+ goals
73%
Blacks Power 2+ goals
38%
Blacks Power 3+ goals
15%
UPDF 1+ goals
64%
UPDF 2+ goals
28%
UPDF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Blacks Power (draw refunded)
60%
UPDF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacks Power at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

UPDF away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.71 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacks Power attack 0.93 + UPDF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

UPDF attack 0.92 + Blacks Power defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blacks Power scores more
43%
level
28%
UPDF scores more
29%

Blacks Power at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blacks Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blacks Power vs UPDF

Blacks Power beat UPDF 1-0 in Premier League on November 29, 2022.

The match was played at Akii Bua Stadium in Lira.