UOR №5 U20 1–1 Krasnodar U19: Result & Stats

UOR №5 U20

FT

1 – 1

Krasnodar U19

11/19/2021

Youth Championship · Round 16Stadion Master-Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

UOR №5 U2022%

×Draw21%

Krasnodar U1957%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UOR №5 U20Expected goals in this matchKrasnodar U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.15

UOR №5 U20

1.27

Krasnodar U19

2.15

Krasnodar U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 78 away

1.26

creates per match

1.94

2.35

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

UOR №5 U20

1.26

Krasnodar U19

1.94

allows per match

UOR №5 U20

2.35

Krasnodar U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Krasnodar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UOR №5 U20 ↓

Krasnodar U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

UOR №5 U20 or draw

43%

UOR №5 U20 or Krasnodar U19

79%

Draw or Krasnodar U19

78%

Winning margin

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+

9%

Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals

72%

UOR №5 U20 2+ goals

36%

UOR №5 U20 3+ goals

14%

Krasnodar U19 1+ goals

88%

Krasnodar U19 2+ goals

63%

Krasnodar U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)

28%

Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UOR №5 U20 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 66 matches

Krasnodar U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.26 + Krasnodar U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Krasnodar U19 attack 1.94 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

UOR №5 U20 scores more

22%

level

21%

Krasnodar U19 scores more

57%

Krasnodar U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff