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Krasnodar U19 vs UOR №5 U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U19
Krasnodar U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UOR №5 U20
UOR №5 U20
7/12/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 14Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Krasnodar U1969%
×Draw17%
UOR №5 U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U19
2.69
UOR №5 U20
1.19

Krasnodar U19 creates 126% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 65 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U19
2.76
UOR №5 U20
1.40

allows per match

Krasnodar U19
0.99
UOR №5 U20
2.63

finishing

Krasnodar U19+0.00on par
UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U19 ↓

UOR №5 U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Krasnodar U19 or draw
85%
Krasnodar U19 or UOR №5 U20
83%
Draw or UOR №5 U20
31%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+
47%
UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Krasnodar U19 1+ goals
93%
Krasnodar U19 2+ goals
74%
Krasnodar U19 3+ goals
49%
UOR №5 U20 1+ goals
70%
UOR №5 U20 2+ goals
33%
UOR №5 U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)
82%
UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

UOR №5 U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.63 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U19 attack 2.76 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.69

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.40 + Krasnodar U19 defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Krasnodar U19 scores more
69%
level
17%
UOR №5 U20 scores more
15%

Krasnodar U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar U19 vs UOR №5 U20

Krasnodar U19 beat UOR №5 U20 3-0 in Youth Championship on July 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.