Unterhaching U19 1–3 Union Berlin U19

Unterhaching U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Union Berlin U19

C. Pfeiffer 36'

M. Alkan 65'

O. Adesiyan 60'

J. Wiehe 20'

2/22/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 4Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unterhaching U1933%

×Draw21%

Union Berlin U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.02

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Union Berlin U19

2.02

Union Berlin U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 76 away

1.70

creates per match

1.95

2.09

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Union Berlin U19

1.95

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Union Berlin U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

54%

Unterhaching U19 or Union Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

67%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

16%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

82%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

51%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

24%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

87%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

60%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.70

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.95 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

33%

level

21%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

46%

Union Berlin U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

J. Wiehe

36'

C. Pfeiffer

46'

N. Markulin← C. Pfeiffer

46'

Suheib-Elias Ali← T. Blaszczak

60'

O. Adesiyan

61'

D. Michelini← L. Hesch

61'

J. Adilji← M. Spann

65'

M. Alkan

67'

S. Tabuaa← J. Wiehe

72'

A. Schweinsteiger← L. Fürmeier

72'

J. Meiner← N. Böhnke

72'

P. Gau← J. Frensch

86'

Ahmad Badran← M. Alkan

90+2'

I. Ciobanu← T. Kannegießer

Unterhaching

Union

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Pfeiffer

Eckl

Manager: A. Haidl

46'▲N. Markulin←▼C. Pfeiffer

61'▲D. Michelini←▼L. Hesch

61'▲J. Adilji←▼M. Spann

72'▲A. Schweinsteiger←▼L. Fürmeier

72'▲J. Meiner←▼N. Böhnke

72'▲P. Gau←▼J. Frensch

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

MarkulinMicheliniAdiljiSchweinsteigerMeinerGauBracher

Manager: M. Grote

46'▲Suheib-Elias Ali←▼T. Blaszczak

67'▲S. Tabuaa←▼J. Wiehe

86'▲Ahmad Badran←▼M. Alkan

90+2'▲I. Ciobanu←▼T. Kannegießer

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

AliTabuaaBadranCiobanuRodtnickKopp

U19 Bundesliga: Unterhaching U19 1–3 Union Berlin U19

Union Berlin U19 beat Unterhaching U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 22, 2025.

Goals: J. Wiehe (20'), C. Pfeiffer (36'), O. Adesiyan (60'), M. Alkan (65').

The match was played at Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen in Unterhaching.

Unterhaching U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Unterhaching U19 1–3 Union Berlin U19