Union Berlin U19 2–1 Unterhaching U19

Union Berlin U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Unterhaching U19

S. Barry 21'

J. Wiehe 8'

J. Eckl 3'

4/6/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 9Sportplatz Bruno-Bürgel-Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Union Berlin U1955%

×Draw21%

Unterhaching U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.36

Union Berlin U19

2.13

Unterhaching U19

1.36

Union Berlin U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 55 away

2.30

creates per match

1.33

1.39

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Union Berlin U19

2.30

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Union Berlin U19

1.39

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw

76%

Union Berlin U19 or Unterhaching U19

79%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

45%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

33%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

88%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

63%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

35%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

74%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

39%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.30 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.13

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

24%

Union Berlin U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Eckl

8'

J. Wiehe

21'

S. Barry

31'

M. Kodaj← N. Markulin

46'

J. Meiner← L. Hesch

56'

G. Mewes← Ahmad Badran

56'

M. Gray← J. Wiehe

72'

L. Falck← J. Eckl

74'

A. Markgraf← S. Barry

74'

O. Ogbemudia← I. Ciobanu

77'

L. Karadža← L. Fürmeier

77'

M. Spann← R. Schneider

85'

S. Tabuaa← M. Alkan

85'

T. Sakoufakis← T. Blaszczak

Union

Unterhaching

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wiehe

Manager: M. Grote

56'▲G. Mewes←▼Ahmad Badran

56'▲M. Gray←▼J. Wiehe

74'▲A. Markgraf←▼S. Barry

74'▲O. Ogbemudia←▼I. Ciobanu

85'▲S. Tabuaa←▼M. Alkan

85'▲T. Sakoufakis←▼T. Blaszczak

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

MewesGrayMarkgrafOgbemudiaTabuaaSakoufakisKopp

Manager: A. Haidl

31'▲M. Kodaj←▼N. Markulin

46'▲J. Meiner←▼L. Hesch

72'▲L. Falck←▼J. Eckl

77'▲L. Karadža←▼L. Fürmeier

77'▲M. Spann←▼R. Schneider

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

KodajMeinerFalckKaradžaSpannKohler