Unterhaching U19 3–0 Ulm U19: Result & Stats

Unterhaching U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ulm U19

C. Pfeiffer 90+4'

J. Adilji 62'

N. Markulin 21'

9/22/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 7Rasenplatz Sportschule Oberhaching

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Unterhaching U1952%

×Draw20%

Ulm U1928%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchUlm U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.67

Unterhaching U19

2.31

Ulm U19

1.67

Unterhaching U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 45 away

1.70

creates per match

1.24

2.09

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Ulm U19

1.24

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Ulm U19

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

72%

Unterhaching U19 or Ulm U19

80%

Draw or Ulm U19

48%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

32%

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

90%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

67%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

40%

Ulm U19 1+ goals

81%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

50%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.31

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

52%

level

20%

Ulm U19 scores more

28%

Unterhaching U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Unterhaching U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

46'

60'

60'

60'

M. Lang← I. El Hadj-Safi

62'

J. Adilji

64'

M. Spann← J. Frensch

70'

E. Altay← N. Hill

70'

M. Ruoß← L. Mahle

77'

L. Karadža← S. Weiß

77'

N. Böhnke← D. Steinberger

81'

L. Ladenburger← J. Totschnig

84'

90+4'

C. Pfeiffer

Unterhaching

Ulm

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Haidl

46'▲L. Fürmeier←▼P. Gau

60'▲J. Adilji←▼L. Leger

64'▲M. Spann←▼J. Frensch

77'▲L. Karadža←▼S. Weiß

77'▲N. Böhnke←▼D. Steinberger

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

FürmeierAdiljiSpannKaradžaBöhnkeBracherKapp

Manager: R. Lechleiter

60'▲D. Belec←▼S. Wetter

60'▲M. Lang←▼I. El Hadj-Safi

70'▲E. Altay←▼N. Hill

70'▲M. Ruoß←▼L. Mahle

81'▲L. Ladenburger←▼J. Totschnig

Ulm U19 substitutes

BelecLangAltayRuoßLadenburgerKleiserZielke

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs Ulm U19

Unterhaching U19 beat Ulm U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 22, 2024.

Goals: N. Markulin (21'), J. Adilji (62'), C. Pfeiffer (90+4').

The match was played at Rasenplatz Sportschule Oberhaching in Oberhaching.

Unterhaching U19 vs Ulm U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs Ulm U19