Ulm U19 3–4 Unterhaching U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Unterhaching U19

A. Degraf 81', 65', 59'

C. Pfeiffer 59'

J. Adilji 24'

L. Falck 18'

G. Freimuth 16'

12/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 14Kunstrasenplatz Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ulm U1938%

×Draw22%

Unterhaching U1941%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.89

Ulm U19

1.81

Unterhaching U19

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 55 away

1.67

creates per match

1.33

2.44

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.67

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.44

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

59%

Ulm U19 or Unterhaching U19

78%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

62%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

19%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

84%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

54%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

27%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

85%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

56%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

38%

level

22%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

41%

Unterhaching U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Unterhaching U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

G. Freimuth

18'

L. Falck

24'

J. Adilji

46'

A. Degraf← N. Kleiser

46'

D. Belec← S. Wetter

46'

E. Altay← F. Vater

46'

M. Ruoß← I. El Hadj-Safi

46'

P. Zielke← J. Reichle

46'

T. Klimek← T. Kögel

46'

J. Meiner← P. Gau

53'

C. Pfeiffer← L. Leger

53'

W. Krattenmacher← G. Freimuth

59'

59'

59'

65'

72'

F. Schmutzer← M. Spann

72'

L. Fürmeier← L. Karadža

72'

L. Leitl← L. Falck

81'

A. Degraf

Ulm

Unterhaching

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Freimuth

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Lechleiter

46'▲A. Degraf←▼N. Kleiser

46'▲D. Belec←▼S. Wetter

46'▲E. Altay←▼F. Vater

46'▲M. Ruoß←▼I. El Hadj-Safi

46'▲P. Zielke←▼J. Reichle

46'▲T. Klimek←▼T. Kögel

59'▲O. Sherifi←▼B. Ehe

Ulm U19 substitutes

DegrafBelecAltayRuoßZielkeKlimekSherifi

Manager: A. Haidl

46'▲J. Meiner←▼P. Gau

53'▲C. Pfeiffer←▼L. Leger

53'▲W. Krattenmacher←▼G. Freimuth

72'▲F. Schmutzer←▼M. Spann

72'▲L. Fürmeier←▼L. Karadža

72'▲L. Leitl←▼L. Falck

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

MeinerPfeifferKrattenmacherSchmutzerFürmeierLeitlKohler