Unterhaching U19 0–4 Mainz 05 U19: Result & Stats

Unterhaching U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Mainz 05 U19

P. Schulz 89' (pen)

G. Degtjarevs 79'

L. Bierschenk 64'

D. Kaygin 19'

3/8/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 15Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unterhaching U1925%

×Draw20%

Mainz 05 U1955%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchMainz 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.25

Unterhaching U19

1.46

Mainz 05 U19

2.25

Mainz 05 U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 75 away

1.70

creates per match

2.40

2.09

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Mainz 05 U19

2.40

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Mainz 05 U19

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

45%

Unterhaching U19 or Mainz 05 U19

80%

Draw or Mainz 05 U19

75%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

11%

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

77%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

43%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

18%

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

89%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

65%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

25%

level

20%

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

55%

Mainz 05 U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

D. Kaygin

55'

S. Dorfner← G. Adu

64'

L. Bierschenk

70'

J. Gottmeier← D. Leitl

74'

G. Degtjarevs← N. Weiper

76'

F. Lautenbacher← L. Bucher

76'

L. Ambach← D. Girtler

79'

G. Degtjarevs

82'

A. Dardari← M. Wiesnet

82'

D. Azakir← L. Bierschenk

86'

Y. Azahaf← J. Götze

86'

S. Toure← D. Kaygin

89'

P. SchulzPenalty

Unterhaching

Mainz

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Unterberger

55'▲S. Dorfner←▼G. Adu

70'▲J. Gottmeier←▼D. Leitl

76'▲F. Lautenbacher←▼L. Bucher

76'▲L. Ambach←▼D. Girtler

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

DorfnerGottmeierLautenbacherAmbachSchulerStaigerZimmerer

Manager: B. Hoffmann

74'▲G. Degtjarevs←▼N. Weiper

82'▲A. Dardari←▼M. Wiesnet

82'▲D. Azakir←▼L. Bierschenk

86'▲Y. Azahaf←▼J. Götze

86'▲S. Toure←▼D. Kaygin

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

DegtjarevsDardariAzakirAzahafToureMartinovićZuther

U19 Bundesliga: Unterhaching U19 0–4 Mainz 05 U19

Mainz 05 U19 beat Unterhaching U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 8, 2023.

Goals: D. Kaygin (19'), L. Bierschenk (64'), G. Degtjarevs (79'), P. Schulz (89' pen).

The match was played at Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen in Unterhaching.

Unterhaching U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Unterhaching U19 0–4 Mainz 05 U19