Mainz 05 U19 1–0 Unterhaching U19: Result & Stats

Mainz 05 U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Unterhaching U19

K. Potulski 27'

4/3/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 7Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Mainz 05 U1957%

×Draw20%

Unterhaching U1923%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mainz 05 U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.39

Mainz 05 U19

2.28

Unterhaching U19

1.39

Mainz 05 U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 55 away

2.60

creates per match

1.33

1.44

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19

2.60

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19

1.44

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw

77%

Mainz 05 U19 or Unterhaching U19

80%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

43%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

36%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

90%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

66%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

39%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

75%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

40%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.60 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.28

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

23%

Mainz 05 U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

K. Potulski

46'

L. Hesch← N. Hodžić

61'

Mika Preßler← A. Latifi

61'

Raúl König← S. Touré

70'

J. Adilji← S. Weiß

72'

F. Engel← Mats Preßler

82'

J. Meiner← R. Schneider

86'

S. Horozović← D. Horlbeck

Mainz

Unterhaching

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Kirchhoff

61'▲Mika Preßler←▼A. Latifi

61'▲Raúl König←▼S. Touré

72'▲F. Engel←▼Mats Preßler

86'▲S. Horozović←▼D. Horlbeck

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

PreßlerKönigEngelHorozovićMustaphaWegjanÖzçelik

Manager: A. Haidl

46'▲L. Hesch←▼N. Hodžić

70'▲J. Adilji←▼S. Weiß

82'▲J. Meiner←▼R. Schneider

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

HeschAdiljiMeinerBracherSchweinsteigerFreimuthKlee