Unterhaching U19 2–2 Kaiserslautern U19

Unterhaching U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Kaiserslautern U19

P. Schoch 88'

C. Ehlich 38'

T. Müsel 29', 12'

3/29/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 15Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unterhaching U1942%

×Draw21%

Kaiserslautern U1937%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.85

Unterhaching U19

1.98

Kaiserslautern U19

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 68 away

1.70

creates per match

1.62

2.09

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

63%

Unterhaching U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

79%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

58%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

23%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

86%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

59%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

31%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

84%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

55%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

42%

level

21%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

37%

Unterhaching U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Unterhaching U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Held← K. Klein

12'

29'

38'

46'

46'

52'

L. Kersthold← A. Gözütok

67'

P. Jardella← L. Kersthold

72'

Hong Hyeon-seok← M. Leibelt

79'

L. Majchrzak← T. Müsel

80'

J. Othmer← V. Jäger

88'

P. Schoch

Unterhaching

Kaiserslautern

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Dreier

46'▲K. Adeyemi←▼B. Orth

46'▲S. Süß←▼P. Herrmann

72'▲Hong Hyeon-seok←▼M. Leibelt

80'▲J. Othmer←▼V. Jäger

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

AdeyemiSüßHyeon-seokOthmerThormeierPfisterStockinger

Manager: M. Laping

4'▲J. Held←▼K. Klein

52'▲L. Kersthold←▼A. Gözütok

67'▲P. Jardella←▼L. Kersthold

79'▲L. Majchrzak←▼T. Müsel

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

HeldKerstholdJardellaMajchrzakKajinićSchellenberg

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19

Unterhaching U19 and Kaiserslautern U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on March 29, 2018.

Goals: T. Müsel (12', 29'), C. Ehlich (38'), P. Schoch (88').

The match was played at Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen in Unterhaching.

Unterhaching U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19