Kaiserslautern U19 3–1 Unterhaching U19

Kaiserslautern U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Unterhaching U19

P. Will 80'

T. Müsel 52', 18'

J. Othmer 90'

8/16/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 2Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1948%

×Draw22%

Unterhaching U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.48

Kaiserslautern U19

1.91

Unterhaching U19

1.48

Kaiserslautern U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 55 away

1.86

creates per match

1.33

1.63

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.86

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.63

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw

70%

Kaiserslautern U19 or Unterhaching U19

78%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

52%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

27%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

85%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

57%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

30%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

77%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

43%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.86 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.91

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

48%

level

22%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

30%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

T. Müsel

46'

A. Kaltner← N. Anspach

52'

T. Müsel

59'

D. Kajinić← K. Klein

66'

A. Bakhat← H. Erbay

66'

L. Kersthold← N. Schätzle

66'

M. Vital← A. Osmanoski

71'

J. Othmer← S. Süß

80'

P. Will

84'

T. Mäntynen← A. Gözütok

86'

S. Reuter← B. Thormeier

90'

J. Othmer

Kaiserslautern

Unterhaching

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Bugera

59'▲D. Kajinić←▼K. Klein

66'▲A. Bakhat←▼H. Erbay

66'▲L. Kersthold←▼N. Schätzle

84'▲T. Mäntynen←▼A. Gözütok

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

KajinićBakhatKerstholdMäntynenFrancusWeyandMajchrzak

Manager: S. Dreier

46'▲A. Kaltner←▼N. Anspach

66'▲M. Vital←▼A. Osmanoski

71'▲J. Othmer←▼S. Süß

86'▲S. Reuter←▼B. Thormeier

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

KaltnerVitalOthmerReuterHercogLeibeltPfister

Match Recap: Kaiserslautern U19 vs Unterhaching U19

Kaiserslautern U19 beat Unterhaching U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 16, 2017.

Goals: T. Müsel (18', 52'), P. Will (80'), J. Othmer (90').

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7 in Mehlingen.

Kaiserslautern U19 vs Unterhaching U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kaiserslautern U19 vs Unterhaching U19