Unterhaching U19 3–1 Heidenheim U19: Result & Stats

Unterhaching U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Heidenheim U19

T. Reithmeir 81' (OG)

S. Süß 43', 36'

K. Renner 2'

8/11/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 1Stadion Grünauer Allee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unterhaching U1935%

×Draw22%

Heidenheim U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchHeidenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.84

Unterhaching U19

1.63

Heidenheim U19

1.84

Heidenheim U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 73 away

1.70

creates per match

1.59

2.09

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Heidenheim U19

1.59

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Heidenheim U19

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

57%

Unterhaching U19 or Heidenheim U19

78%

Draw or Heidenheim U19

65%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

17%

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

80%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

48%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

22%

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

84%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

55%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.56 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.59 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

35%

level

22%

Heidenheim U19 scores more

43%

Heidenheim U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

36'

43'

56'

68'

J. Ibrahim← M. Maurer

70'

C. Kopp← G. Kilic

80'

Y. Sagert← M. Swiderski

81'

T. ReithmeirOwn goal

83'

J. Othmer← A. Kaltner

86'

M. Vital← T. Stockinger

88'

N. Anspach← P. Schoch

Unterhaching

Heidenheim

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Dreier

83'▲J. Othmer←▼A. Kaltner

86'▲M. Vital←▼T. Stockinger

88'▲N. Anspach←▼P. Schoch

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

OthmerVitalAnspachHercogDemolliPfisterReuter

Manager: B. Götz

56'▲A. Owusu←▼K. Sessa

68'▲J. Ibrahim←▼M. Maurer

70'▲C. Kopp←▼G. Kilic

80'▲Y. Sagert←▼M. Swiderski

Heidenheim U19 substitutes

OwusuIbrahimKoppSagertIbrahimAhmetiRogalsky

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs Heidenheim U19

Unterhaching U19 beat Heidenheim U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 11, 2017.

Goals: K. Renner (2'), S. Süß (36', 43'), T. Reithmeir (81' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Grünauer Allee in Unterhaching.

Unterhaching U19 vs Heidenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs Heidenheim U19