Heidenheim U19 0–0 Unterhaching U19: Result & Stats

Heidenheim U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unterhaching U19

12/3/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 14Trainingsgelände an der Voith-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Heidenheim U1948%

×Draw22%

Unterhaching U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heidenheim U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.53

Heidenheim U19

1.96

Unterhaching U19

1.53

Heidenheim U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 55 away

1.96

creates per match

1.33

1.73

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Heidenheim U19

1.96

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Heidenheim U19

1.73

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidenheim U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Heidenheim U19 or draw

70%

Heidenheim U19 or Unterhaching U19

78%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

52%

Winning margin

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

27%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

86%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

58%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

31%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

78%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

45%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidenheim U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.73 · 70 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.96 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.96

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Heidenheim U19 scores more

48%

level

22%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

30%

Heidenheim U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

L. Gunst← A. Owusu

33'

T. Reithmeir← L. Ender

66'

T. Stockinger← J. Othmer

71'

J. Kalchner← M. Leibelt

74'

J. Ibrahim← K. Renner

85'

L. Demolli← A. Osmanoski

90'

F. Mango← F. Ahmeti

90'

C. Hercog← P. Schoch

Heidenheim

Unterhaching

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Bauer

28'▲L. Gunst←▼A. Owusu

33'▲T. Reithmeir←▼L. Ender

74'▲J. Ibrahim←▼K. Renner

90'▲F. Mango←▼F. Ahmeti

Heidenheim U19 substitutes

GunstReithmeirIbrahimMangoKoppIbrahimGlaser

Manager: S. Dreier

66'▲T. Stockinger←▼J. Othmer

71'▲J. Kalchner←▼M. Leibelt

85'▲L. Demolli←▼A. Osmanoski

90'▲C. Hercog←▼P. Schoch

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

StockingerKalchnerDemolliHercogThormeierPfisterReuter