Unterhaching U19 1–4 Greuther Fürth U19

Unterhaching U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Greuther Fürth U19

A. Kaltner 52'

M. Loo 53'

N. Geyer 45'

T. Scheuchenpflug 21'

M. Bauer 8'

5/5/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 26Stadion Grünauer Allee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unterhaching U1943%

×Draw21%

Greuther Fürth U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchGreuther Fürth U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.81

Unterhaching U19

2.00

Greuther Fürth U19

1.81

Unterhaching U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 67 away

1.70

creates per match

1.54

2.09

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Greuther Fürth U19

1.54

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Greuther Fürth U19

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Greuther Fürth U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

64%

Unterhaching U19 or Greuther Fürth U19

79%

Draw or Greuther Fürth U19

57%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

24%

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

86%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

59%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

32%

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

84%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

54%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Greuther Fürth U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.00

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.54 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

43%

level

21%

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

36%

Unterhaching U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unterhaching U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Bauer

21'

T. Scheuchenpflug

45'

N. Geyer

46'

A. Fambo← B. Orth

46'

F. Wiedl← M. Leibelt

46'

L. Demolli← V. Jäger

46'

G. Kurbashyan← N. Geyer

46'

P. Tröger← J. Muiomo

48'

Hong Hyeon-seok← P. Schoch

52'

A. Kaltner

53'

M. Loo

56'

E. Kratzer← M. Loo

65'

V. Gressel← T. Schulz

Unterhaching

Greuther

Zahaczews

⚽

Bauer

Trenkwald

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Dreier

46'▲A. Fambo←▼B. Orth

46'▲F. Wiedl←▼M. Leibelt

46'▲L. Demolli←▼V. Jäger

48'▲Hong Hyeon-seok←▼P. Schoch

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

FamboWiedlDemolliHyeon-seokSüßSchmid

Manager: J. Steinberger

46'▲G. Kurbashyan←▼N. Geyer

46'▲P. Tröger←▼J. Muiomo

56'▲E. Kratzer←▼M. Loo

65'▲V. Gressel←▼T. Schulz

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

KurbashyanTrögerKratzerGresselChrubasikZeller