Greuther Fürth U19 1–1 Unterhaching U19

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Unterhaching U19

A. Krasniqi 90+2'

A.Keller 33'

9/11/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3Charly-Mai-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1940%

×Draw23%

Unterhaching U1938%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.66

Greuther Fürth U19

1.71

Unterhaching U19

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 55 away

1.45

creates per match

1.33

1.98

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.45

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.98

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

62%

Greuther Fürth U19 or Unterhaching U19

77%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

60%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

20%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

82%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

51%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

24%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

81%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

49%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 65 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.45 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.71

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

40%

level

23%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

38%

Greuther Fürth U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Greuther Fürth U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

A.Keller

59'

J. Hendricks← M. Hirschmann

59'

L. Mrozek← L. Näpflein

59'

B. Westermeier← J. Gottmeier

59'

S. Burke← A. Hirtlreiter

66'

B. Frohlich

66'

B. Frohlich

67'

B. Eckl← L. Ambach

76'

M. Hohmann← R. Manole

78'

85'

85'

87'

90+2'

Greuther

Unterhaching

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Ried

59'▲J. Hendricks←▼M. Hirschmann

59'▲L. Mrozek←▼L. Näpflein

78'▲N. Höhn←▼M. Fries

87'▲P. Müller←▼Y. Bodem

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

HendricksMrozekHöhnMüllerKülpmannOrtiusKaymakci

Manager: S. Teichmann

59'▲B. Westermeier←▼J. Gottmeier

59'▲S. Burke←▼A. Hirtlreiter

67'▲B. Eckl←▼L. Ambach

76'▲M. Hohmann←▼R. Manole

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

WestermeierBurkeEcklHohmannBucherPerkuhnBarakat