Unterhaching U19 3–0 Borussia Dortmund U19

Unterhaching U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Borussia Dortmund U19

C. Pfeiffer 86'

J. Eckl 17'

S. Weiß 13' (pen)

4/12/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 10Rasenplatz Sportschule Oberhaching

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unterhaching U1923%

×Draw20%

Borussia Dortmund U1957%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.35

Unterhaching U19

1.44

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.35

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 65 away

1.70

creates per match

2.62

2.09

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.62

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

43%

Unterhaching U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

80%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

77%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

10%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

76%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

42%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

18%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

90%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

68%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.62 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

23%

level

20%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

57%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

S. WeißPenalty

17'

J. Eckl

45+3'

M. Kodaj← D. Wu

45'

S. Inácio← T. Degener

45'

V. Cena← P. Kegni

56'

A. Mahjoubi← L. Reggiani

56'

T. Meiser← W. Rashidi

62'

J. Adilji← L. Hesch

76'

O. Błaszczyk← N. Adamczyk

77'

G. Freimuth← J. Eckl

77'

L. Leger← S. Weiß

86'

C. Pfeiffer

Unterhaching

Borussia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Weiß

⚽

Pfeiffer

⚽

▼

Eckl

Manager: A. Haidl

45+3'▲M. Kodaj←▼D. Wu

62'▲J. Adilji←▼L. Hesch

77'▲G. Freimuth←▼J. Eckl

77'▲L. Leger←▼S. Weiß

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

KodajAdiljiFreimuthLegerBracherKaradžaGau

Manager: M. Tullberg

45'▲S. Inácio←▼T. Degener

45'▲V. Cena←▼P. Kegni

56'▲A. Mahjoubi←▼L. Reggiani

56'▲T. Meiser←▼W. Rashidi

76'▲O. Błaszczyk←▼N. Adamczyk

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

InácioCenaMahjoubiMeiserBłaszczykHeldNiziołek

U19 Bundesliga: Unterhaching U19 3–0 Borussia Dortmund U19

Unterhaching U19 beat Borussia Dortmund U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 12, 2025.

Goals: S. Weiß (13' pen), J. Eckl (17'), C. Pfeiffer (86').

The match was played at Rasenplatz Sportschule Oberhaching in Oberhaching.

Unterhaching U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Unterhaching U19 3–0 Borussia Dortmund U19