Borussia Dortmund U19 0–2 Unterhaching U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Unterhaching U19

N. Böhnke 77'

J. Eckl 28'

3/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 5Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1966%

×Draw18%

Unterhaching U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.13

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.48

Unterhaching U19

1.13

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 55 away

3.00

creates per match

1.33

0.92

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

3.00

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

0.92

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

84%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or Unterhaching U19

82%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

34%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

44%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

92%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

70%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

44%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

68%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

31%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.92 · 71 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 3.00 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.48

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

66%

level

18%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

16%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

J. Eckl

56'

A. Mahjoubi← L. Reggiani

59'

N. Markulin← J. Eckl

66'

J. Adilji← M. Spann

73'

A. Niziołek← T. Etcibasi

77'

N. Böhnke

84'

M. Kodaj← S. Weiß

Borussia

Unterhaching

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Tullberg

56'▲A. Mahjoubi←▼L. Reggiani

73'▲A. Niziołek←▼T. Etcibasi

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

MahjoubiNiziołekHeldAdamczykDegenerCenaZarqelain

Manager: A. Haidl

59'▲N. Markulin←▼J. Eckl

66'▲J. Adilji←▼M. Spann

84'▲M. Kodaj←▼S. Weiß

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

MarkulinAdiljiKodajSchweinsteigerBracherMeinerLeitl

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Unterhaching U19

Unterhaching U19 beat Borussia Dortmund U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 1, 2025.

Goals: J. Eckl (28'), N. Böhnke (77').

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Unterhaching U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Unterhaching U19