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Unterhaching II vs Schalding-Heining — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Unterhaching II
Unterhaching II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Schalding-Heining
Schalding-Heining
7/31/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 3Uhlsport Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Unterhaching II30%
×Draw24%
Schalding-Heining45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unterhaching II
1.31
Schalding-Heining
1.65

Schalding-Heining creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 49 away

creates per match

Unterhaching II
1.00
Schalding-Heining
1.67

allows per match

Unterhaching II
1.63
Schalding-Heining
1.61

finishing

Unterhaching II+0.00on par
Schalding-Heining+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching II ↓

Schalding-Heining →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Unterhaching II or draw
55%
Unterhaching II or Schalding-Heining
76%
Draw or Schalding-Heining
70%

Winning margin

Unterhaching II wins by 2+
13%
Schalding-Heining wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Unterhaching II 1+ goals
73%
Unterhaching II 2+ goals
38%
Unterhaching II 3+ goals
14%
Schalding-Heining 1+ goals
81%
Schalding-Heining 2+ goals
49%
Schalding-Heining 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching II (draw refunded)
40%
Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Schalding-Heining away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching II attack 1.00 + Schalding-Heining defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Schalding-Heining attack 1.67 + Unterhaching II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Unterhaching II scores more
30%
level
24%
Schalding-Heining scores more
45%

Schalding-Heining at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Schalding-Heining will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unterhaching II vs Schalding-Heining

Unterhaching II beat Schalding-Heining 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on July 31, 2024.

The match was played at Uhlsport Park in Unterhaching.