Schalding-Heining 2–2 Unterhaching II

Schalding-Heining

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Unterhaching II

11/9/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 20Sportanlage Reuthinger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Schalding-Heining56%

×Draw23%

Unterhaching II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schalding-HeiningExpected goals in this matchUnterhaching II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.05

Schalding-Heining

1.86

Unterhaching II

1.05

Schalding-Heining creates 77% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 16 away

1.53

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Schalding-Heining

1.53

Unterhaching II

1.00

allows per match

Schalding-Heining

1.10

Unterhaching II

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schalding-Heining+0.00on par

Unterhaching II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalding-Heining ↓

Unterhaching II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Schalding-Heining or draw

79%

Schalding-Heining or Unterhaching II

77%

Draw or Unterhaching II

44%

Winning margin

Schalding-Heining wins by 2+

32%

Unterhaching II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Schalding-Heining 1+ goals

84%

Schalding-Heining 2+ goals

55%

Schalding-Heining 3+ goals

28%

Unterhaching II 1+ goals

65%

Unterhaching II 2+ goals

28%

Unterhaching II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)

73%

Unterhaching II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalding-Heining at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Unterhaching II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalding-Heining attack 1.53 + Unterhaching II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.86

Unterhaching II attack 1.00 + Schalding-Heining defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Schalding-Heining scores more

56%

level

23%

Unterhaching II scores more

21%

Schalding-Heining at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Schalding-Heining will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff