Unterhaching II 0–1 Erlbach: Result & Stats

Unterhaching II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Erlbach

10/3/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 14Stadion am Sportpark Neuried

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Unterhaching II29%

×Draw27%

Erlbach44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching IIExpected goals in this matchErlbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.38

Unterhaching II

1.07

Erlbach

1.38

Erlbach creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

1.00

creates per match

1.12

1.63

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Unterhaching II

1.00

Erlbach

1.12

allows per match

Unterhaching II

1.63

Erlbach

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching II+0.00on par

Erlbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching II ↓

Erlbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Unterhaching II or draw

56%

Unterhaching II or Erlbach

73%

Draw or Erlbach

71%

Winning margin

Unterhaching II wins by 2+

11%

Erlbach wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Unterhaching II 1+ goals

66%

Unterhaching II 2+ goals

29%

Unterhaching II 3+ goals

9%

Erlbach 1+ goals

75%

Erlbach 2+ goals

40%

Erlbach 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching II (draw refunded)

40%

Erlbach (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Erlbach away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching II attack 1.00 + Erlbach defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Erlbach attack 1.12 + Unterhaching II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Unterhaching II scores more

29%

level

27%

Erlbach scores more

44%

Erlbach at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Erlbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff