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Erlbach vs Unterhaching II — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Erlbach
Erlbach
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unterhaching II
Unterhaching II
4/25/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 31Holzbau Grübl Arena Erlbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Erlbach60%
×Draw23%
Unterhaching II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erlbach
1.81
Unterhaching II
0.83

Erlbach creates 118% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 16 away

creates per match

Erlbach
1.43
Unterhaching II
1.00

allows per match

Erlbach
0.66
Unterhaching II
2.19

finishing

Erlbach+0.00on par
Unterhaching II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erlbach ↓

Unterhaching II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Erlbach or draw
83%
Erlbach or Unterhaching II
77%
Draw or Unterhaching II
40%

Winning margin

Erlbach wins by 2+
35%
Unterhaching II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Erlbach 1+ goals
84%
Erlbach 2+ goals
54%
Erlbach 3+ goals
27%
Unterhaching II 1+ goals
56%
Unterhaching II 2+ goals
20%
Unterhaching II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Erlbach (draw refunded)
78%
Unterhaching II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erlbach at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Unterhaching II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erlbach attack 1.43 + Unterhaching II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.81

Unterhaching II attack 1.00 + Erlbach defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Erlbach scores more
60%
level
23%
Unterhaching II scores more
17%

Erlbach at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Erlbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erlbach vs Unterhaching II

Erlbach and Unterhaching II drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Holzbau Grübl Arena Erlbach in Erlbach.